Experts are warning that the risks facing humanity in the coming decades could lead to severe societal collapse or even extinction. Estimates from researchers and authors suggest significant odds of a global catastrophe within this century.
Toby Ord, author of “The Precipice,” places the likelihood of an existential catastrophe at one-in-six for this century. This assessment includes threats from artificial intelligence as well as other sources. Similarly, philosopher Nick Bostrom cites a median expert estimate that there is a 19 percent chance of human extinction due to global catastrophic risks.
Jared Diamond, known for his research on past civilizations, estimates there is a 50-50 chance humanity will survive beyond 2050. He bases this on patterns observed in previous societies.
Historical studies support these concerns. Luke Kemp’s review of more than 400 societies over 5,000 years finds that inequality and elite overreach often contribute to civilizational collapse. Diamond also points to environmental damage, climate change, and inadequate societal responses as leading causes for decline.
Modern interconnectedness may amplify these impacts by removing options for recovery if collapse occurs globally rather than regionally. Nuclear weapons remain a major concern; approximately 10,000 warheads are held by countries such as the United States, Russia, and China. The risk posed by nuclear arms is now considered alongside climate change and artificial intelligence in assessments like the Doomsday Clock, which currently stands closer to midnight than ever before.
Engineered pandemics and biological threats are also growing concerns because rapid international travel could spread new diseases quickly across continents. According to Kemp’s analysis, climate change today is advancing ten times faster than during historical mass extinctions—potentially leading to agricultural declines and mass migrations. By 2070, up to two billion people may face extreme heat conditions while half of all viable land for staple crops could be lost.
Developing regions are expected to suffer most from these shifts; however, subsistence farming might help alleviate some food shortages in Africa. Artificial intelligence introduces additional dangers if systems become misaligned or produce unintended consequences—a point underscored by warnings issued by AI leaders in 2023 about unchecked technological growth. RAND Corporation research in 2025 explored how AI might worsen nuclear or biological risks (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2246-1.html).
Natural disasters remain relevant too: solar flares similar to the Carrington Event of 1859 have about a one-in-ten chance per decade of recurring and could cause prolonged blackouts today by disrupting power grids and communications (https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2014/nasa-supercomputing-study-improves-ability-to-predict-solar-storms). Proposed solutions like stratospheric aerosol injection—meant to cool Earth’s atmosphere—bring their own hazards including ozone depletion and unpredictable changes in rainfall patterns (https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/7/bams-d-16-0027.1.xml).
Meanwhile, wealthy individuals are taking steps to prepare for worst-case scenarios through private bunkers or remote properties abroad—a trend reflected by Peter Thiel’s New Zealand holdings and Mark Zuckerberg’s construction of fortified compounds.
These developments underscore disparities in preparedness between socioeconomic groups. Experts continue monitoring these converging risks while emphasizing the need for coordinated strategies based on evidence rather than speculation.
“Ultimately, the convergence of nuclear, climatic, and AI threats demands immediate, evidence-based responses to avert potential extinction-level events.”
